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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten three home nations, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a international match.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, they beat them again. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, yes, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but not the outcomes.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have reduced to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Through their brilliance, physical dominance, game management, they secure victory.

As match day approaches where positive expectations that supporters maintained for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality.

Missing Players

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. While competent, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches going back three years, they've accumulated scores in the first half and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.