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As global leaders gather in the Brazilian Amazon for the 30th UN Climate Change Conference, it is vital to assess how we are faring together in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions.

In spite of three decades of UN climate summits, nearly 50% of the CO2 built up in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution has been emitted after the year 1990. Incidentally, 1990 marked the release of the initial scientific evaluation by the IPCC, which confirmed the threat of anthropogenic climate change. As scientists work on the upcoming IPCC report, they do so knowing that their work remains overshadowed by political agendas. Despite sincere attempts, the planet is still dangerously off track to prevent dangerous global warming.

Unprecedented CO₂ Levels and Fossil Fuel Dependency

Recent data show that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels hit a new peak of 423.9 parts per million in 2024, with the increase rate from 2023 to 2024 jumping by the biggest annual rise since modern measurements began in the late 1950s. According to the international carbon monitoring initiative, ninety percent of total global CO₂ emissions in 2024 originated from the combustion of carbon-based energy sources, while the remaining 10% was due to alterations in land use such as forest clearance and wildfires.

Although the rise in fossil CO₂ emissions in 2024 was driven by higher use of natural gas and petroleum—representing over half of worldwide discharges—the use of coal also attained a record high, making up forty-one percent. Despite the previous climate summit's evaluation calling for nations to transition away from carbon fuels, global strategies still aim to extract over twice the amount of hydrocarbons in the year 2030 than aligns with keeping planet heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius, with ongoing drilling of gas justified as a lower emission transition fuel.

The Illusion of Nature-Based Solutions

Rather than concentrating on financial motivators to accelerate the phase-out of carbon fuels, environmental strategies are overly dependent on feel-good nature positive solutions that seek to cancel out carbon emissions by afforestation instead of cutting industrial emissions. Although conserving, enlarging, and restoring ecological absorbers like forests and wetlands is beneficial in itself, research has demonstrated that there is not enough land to reach the global goal of carbon neutrality using nature-based solutions alone.

Approximately 1 billion hectares—an area larger than the United States of America—is required to meet net zero pledges. More than 40% of this area would need to be converted from existing uses like food production to carbon sequestration projects by 2060 at an never-before-seen pace.

Even if this regenerative utopia could be realized, forests take time to mature and are susceptible to fires, so they should not be viewed as a quick or lasting CO2 retention method, particularly in a rapidly shifting climate. As severe temperatures and dryness engulf larger regions, these sincere attempts could literally go up in smoke.

The Diminishing of Natural Carbon Sinks

Scientific evidence tells us that about half of the total CO₂ emitted each year stays in the air, while the rest is absorbed by seas and land ecosystems. With global heating, these environmental absorbers are losing efficiency at capturing CO₂, which means that more carbon builds up in the atmosphere, intensifying global warming. Shifting the reduction responsibility onto the land sector simply relieves the fossil fuel industry from the urgency to reduce emissions any time soon.

The Climate Liability and Coming Populations

Achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century demands carbon dioxide removal (CDR), which currently depends largely on land-based measures to absorb surplus CO2 from the air. Emitting companies can easily buy carbon credits to counterbalance their discharges and proceed with normal operations. At the same time, the energy imbalance caused by the combustion of hydrocarbons continues to further destabilise the Earth’s climate. Essentially, we are increasing our climate liability to our global account, leaving future generations with an unpayable liability.

To limit the scale and duration of exceeding the global warming targets, the world ultimately needs to surpass the neutralising effect of carbon neutrality and start to drawdown past carbon outputs to reach net negative emissions.

The Political Distortion of Net Zero

According to the latest numbers from the Global Carbon Project, plant-based carbon removal is presently capturing the equivalent of about 5% of yearly CO2 from fuels, while engineered carbon extraction accounts for only about a tiny fraction of the carbon released from carbon sources. Optimistic industry estimates suggest around 0.1% of worldwide CO2 output. Without meaning to be controversial, the political distortion of net zero is an insidious loophole that distracts from the scientific imperative to eradicate the primary cause of our warming world—carbon-based energy.

The Critical Requirement for Definite Steps

Although this research-backed truth should dominate talks at Cop30, history indicates that polite incrementalism and deference to politics will prevail. Vague statements of long-term goals will continue to postpone the pressing requirement for definite short-term measures. Unless leaders are brave enough to implement carbon pricing to terminate the age of hydrocarbons, we are releasing increasing amounts of CO2 to the air, worsening the environmental disaster now unfolding all around us.

The dilemma we confront is straightforward: take real action to the scientific reality of our crisis or endure the results of this deep ethical lapse for centuries to come.