NFL Play-Off Picture: Key Deciders & Scenarios for the Final Week.
As we head into the last weekend of the NFL regular season, just two play-off spots are still up for grabs. Yet, a great deal more is at stake, including the coveted #1 rankings in each conference and several division titles.
The schedule makers have produced a perfect finale, with the two remaining play-off positions to be decided in two direct head-to-head matchups.
Current NFL Play-Off Standings
American Football Conference Rankings
- Denver Broncos (13-3)
- New England (13-3)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4)
- Pittsburgh (9-7) / Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
- Houston (11-5)
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)
- Buffalo (11-5)
The winner of the Pittsburgh-Baltimore contest will claim the #4 spot and a home game in the wildcard round. At the same time, the Bills and Los Angeles are locked in as wildcard teams.
The Texans require a win coupled with a Jaguars loss to climb from the fifth seed to the third seed. The Broncos will earn the #1 ranking with a triumph, but a loss could open the door for New England or the Jaguars to snatch it.
National Football Conference Rankings
- Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
- Chicago Bears (11-5)
- Philadelphia (11-5)
- Carolina Panthers (8-8) / Tampa Bay (7-9)
- San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
- L.A. Rams (11-5)
- Green Bay Packers (9-6)
The South division will be claimed by the victor of the Panthers-Buccaneers game, granting them the fourth seed. However, Carolina could still win the division even with a loss, contingent on other results.
Green Bay are set at the seventh spot. The highlight, however, is the clash for the #1 seed in the NFC between Seattle and the 49ers, with a week off and home-field advantage hanging in the balance.
How the NFL Postseason Works
The top seed in both the AFC and NFC receives a valuable first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the play-offs.
On Wildcard Weekend, the remaining six qualified teams face off: the second seed plays the #7 team, #3 plays #6, and #4 faces #5.
For the second round, the top seeds join the fray, facing the weakest surviving team. The AFC and NFC title games are then hosted by the best remaining team, highlighting the critical importance of earning that #1 ranking.
Win or Go Home in the AFC North
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
This bitter grudge match comes to a head in the last contest of the regular season. The divisional title and a play-off berth at stake, this is a true win-or-go-home scenario.
Pittsburgh have been up and down all year, while Baltimore started poorly but remain in contention. Key injuries could be decisive: Pittsburgh may miss key target DK Metcalf, while the Ravens' signal-caller Lamar Jackson is questionable with a back injury.
Star rusher Derrick Henry might emerge as the x-factor for Baltimore in what promises to be a physical, low-scoring battle.
NFC West Showdown for the Top Seed
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks (01:00, Sunday)
Not only the NFC West is at stake when Seattle travels to the 49ers. The victorious team claims the NFC's top seed and the path to the championship game that comes with it.
This game features an explosive San Francisco attack against a dominant Seahawks defense. With QB Brock Purdy came back, San Francisco have been the NFL's highest scorers. Conversely, the Seahawks' unit is rated second best in the league.
The Seahawks' quarterback Sam Darnold must avoid costly turnovers that have plagued him this season. Whoever comes out on top gains a massive advantage for the postseason journey.
NFC South: A Race to Stumble Over the Line
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers (21:30 Saturday)
Neither team enters this game with strong form. Tampa Bay have dropped four straight, while the Panthers have missed recent opportunities to clinch the title.
The Panthers it's straightforward: a victory gets them in. For Tampa Bay, the situation is trickier. Even with a victory, they need help from the Falcons-Saints game to claim the division crown.
Three-Way Fight for AFC Supremacy
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans (18:00, Sunday)
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins (21:25, Sunday)
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers (21:25, Sunday)
Denver control their destiny for the AFC's top seed. A victory over a L.A. Chargers team likely to rest starters gets it done.
If the Broncos lose, the door opens for the New England Patriots. A New England victory coupled with a Denver defeat would give the top seed to New England.
Jacksonville are the dark horse. They require a win and defeats for both Denver and New England to achieve an unlikely ascent to #1. More importantly, a Jacksonville defeat could see them passed by the Houston Texans in the division standings.
NFL Week 18: Complete Schedule
Saturday, 3 January
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Sunday, 4 January
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (18:00)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (18:00)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (18:00)
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (18:00)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (18:00)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (21:25)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (21:25)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (21:25)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (21:25)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (21:25)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
